Assessing the Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on the Stability of Listed Commercial Banks in Vietnam

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.28924/2291-8639-24-2026-152
Published: May 20, 2026
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Huong Tran Thi Thu, Manh Pham Tien, Huyen Giang Thi Thu, Assessing the Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on the Stability of Listed Commercial Banks in Vietnam, Int. J. Anal. Appl., 24 (2026), 152.

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Huong Tran Thi Thu, Manh Pham Tien, Huyen Giang Thi Thu

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic instability on the stability of listed commercial banks in Vietnam. The stability of the banking system plays a crucial role in the national economy and financial system. In the context of current policy instability, macroeconomic instability, and integration, the challenges to the banking system's stability are increasing. The paper uses the GMM estimation method to assess the impact of the Macroeconomic Instability Index (MII) on the Z-score of listed commercial banks in Vietnam. The research results show an inverse impact of macroeconomic instability on banking stability, implying that increased macroeconomic instability weakens banking stability. Macroeconomic shocks degrade credit quality, increase liquidity risk, and increase risk provisioning pressure, leading to banking instability. Furthermore, the national governance index is shown to have a positive impact on banking instability.

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