Improved Spatial-Temporal CAR Models for Dengue Fever Incidence: Evidence from Banyumas

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.28924/2291-8639-23-2025-331
Published: Dec 12, 2025
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Jajang, Mashuri, Novita Eka Chandra, Budi Pratikno, Improved Spatial-Temporal CAR Models for Dengue Fever Incidence: Evidence from Banyumas, Int. J. Anal. Appl., 23 (2025), 331.

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Jajang, Mashuri, Novita Eka Chandra, Budi Pratikno

Abstract

In the last six years, dengue fever cases in Banyumas Regency in 2024 were very high.  The relative risk (RR) of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is of interest. In this paper, we proposed the Spatial Temporal-Conditional Autoregressive (ST-CAR) model to analyze the association of DHF with related factors. In addition, we improve the model with offset modification on ST-CAR.  The results of research showed that the best ST-CAR model was the interaction of intrinsic CAR and independent identically distributed temporal effects.  In addition, the offset modification in the ST-CAR model resulted in the smallest Watanabe-Akaike Information Criterion (WAIC).  Based on the study's findings, the two highest RR from year to year are located not far from the city center (North Purwokerto) and the tourist attraction (Baturaden). Both locations are often associated with higher risk factors such as population density and greater social interaction, which facilitate transmission.

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